2022 US Senate Democratic Dream Part II
What is the absolute dream scenario for the Democratic Party in next year's Senate elections? I explore that thought experiment in three parts with this one dealing with pure tossup seats.
This is Part II (Part I here) of my Democratic Dream Scenario for the 2022 midterm elections. In Part I, I covered the seats currently held by Democrats and which are most likely to remain Democratic. In this one, I am going to cover what I call the “true tossups”.
PENNSYLVANIA
Now, we go to the seats that are currently held by Republicans, and we begin with the seat that almost all observers consider to be Democrats’ best chance to flip a seat from red to blue: my own wonderful home state of Pennsylvania. Over the last century, Pennsylvania has been an extremely powerful swing state. Pennsylvania has oscillated between being more Republican than the nation at large (1920s to 1950s and post-2016) and more Democratic than the nation at large (1950s-2016). Right now, the state is slightly more Republican than the nation at large. However, based on demographic trends, this is unlikely to last much longer, and Pat Toomey’s retirement has given Democrats a chance to win an election for the Class III Senate seat for the first time since 1962. Democrats have been trying to win this seat since 2010, and this seat has just proved elusive. In both 2010 and 2016 (both strong Republican years at the national level), Democrats just barely missed out on toppling Toomey and winning this seat when he won by 2 points and 1.5 points respectively. In 2010, the state was more Democratic than the nation while in 2016, it was more Republican than the nation.
Pennsylvania is one of the few states where both state parties are on equal footing and have equally strong electioneering infrastructure and have massive statewide benches. After Obama romped the state in 2008, Pennsylvania Republicans came back strong in 2010 and have had an enviable foundation and infrastructure in the state such that Democrats had very little luck in the state between 2012 and 2018. However, after the loss of the state for the first time since 1988 in 2016, Pennsylvania Democrats have gotten their act together and come back extremely strong. They reelected Governor Tom Wolf by 17 points in 2018 and Senator Bob Casey by 13 points in the same year. They also shaved Republican majorities in both chambers of the state legislature and won a supermajority of the Pennsylvania Supreme Court.
I have argued that Pennsylvania and Michigan are intrinsically blue states who are currently going through their temper tantrum phases as the Democratic Party’s coalition changes. The reason Pennsylvania (and Michigan) are currently competitive is because the old Democratic New Deal Coalition which powered the party’s victories in this state has been turning red while the old Republican Three-Legged Stool is also collapsing and turning blue. Pennsylvania is a classic New Deal Coalition state where the Democratic Party has been traditionally powered by the industrial southwestern and northeastern parts of the state. Republicans used to win by powering their suburban coalitions within Allegheny County (outside Pittsburgh) and the Philadelphia Collar to overcome the more industrial Pittsburgh exurbs and northeast. However, as the suburbs of the Philadelphia Collar and Allegheny have been moving blue for decades, Republicans are no longer able to rely on this coalition.
On the Republican side, the primary has turned into an absolute shitshow. Essentially, it has become a contest of who can out-Trump everyone else. In a state where the electoral victories are powered by the Philadelphia Collar and suburban Allegheny, this is not a good place to be in for the red team. Republicans are hemorrhaging support in both of these electorally crucial areas of the state. The suburbs of Philadelphia have been blue at the federal level since the 1990s and those of Allegheny since the mid-2000s. This federal support for the Democratic Party has been slowly but surely trickling down ballot as well, and this trend has only accelerated post-2016 (thanks to the Orange Man). To paraphrase the Associated Press a while ago, “the suburbs roared for Democrats” in 2019 as Democrats took control of county boards of commissioners in the Philadelphia Collar that they have not controlled since before the Civil War and made massive gains throughout the wealthy northern and western Pittsburgh suburbs in Allegheny County. If there is one swing state where the suburban revolt against the Trumpist Republican Party has been especially toxic to the state Republicans, it is Pennsylvania.
Trump seems to be backing Sean Parnell in the Republican primary. Parnell challenged US Representative Conor Lamb of the 17th Congressional District which includes the affluent northern and western Allegheny County suburbs as well as ancestrally Democratic but currently Republican exurban Beaver County and a small part of suburban Butler County. Parnell lost the race in 2020 to Lamb, but he has become a full-blown Trump sycophant in the past few years. In a state where Trump sycophants have been electorally punished, I am not convinced that national Republicans actually want him to be their standard-bearer. The other big name on the Republican side at the moment is businessman Jeff Bartos who ran on (and lost in a landslide) the Republican lieutenant gubernatorial ticket in 2018. Bartos would be a better candidate statewide because he is seen as being less of a Trump sycophant, but the Trump brand cannot be escaped for Pennsylvania Republicans. Right now, the Republicans who could potentially make the suburbs come back to red are former US Representatives Charlie Dent and Ryan Costello (both from suburban Philadelphia), but neither has jumped into the race, yet. However, based on my reading, it seems that Costello is intending to jump into the race. For what it is worth, I personally think the strongest recruit for Republicans would be Charlie Dent, a moderate Republican who has a track record of doing well in both the ancestrally Republican Philadelphia Collar as well as ancestrally Democratic Pittsburgh exurbs.
On the Democratic side, the field continues to grow, but the current frontrunner seems to be incumbent Lieutenant Governor John Fetterman. Fetterman hails from Braddock, a small working-class steel town from the eastern Allegheny County suburbs that has now become majority-minority. Fetterman has a clear fundraising advantage, and there is a reasonable argument that he will be able to do well in both the ancestrally Republican Philadelphia Collar where the Wolf-Fetterman ticket romped to landslide victories and ancestrally Democratic Pittsburgh exurbs where Republicans have made massive gains in the last three decades. The other big name who is publicly considering a run is Conor Lamb. He will almost certainly redistricted out of a seat, so he is trying to make the jump to statewide office. Lamb, too, is from the Greater Pittsburgh region, so both seeming frontrunners are from the same part of the state. Historically, this has actually happened with multiple Philadelphia area Democrats running for statewide office. They tend to split the vote in the Delaware Valley and allow the Democrat from Greater Pittsburgh win by a plurality; this is exactly what happened in the 2018 Lieutenant Governor’s race.
Either way, it seems that either Lamb or Fetterman are currently on track to be the Democratic nominee at this very early stage. Of course, anything can happen between now and next year’s spring primary election. Personally, I think Fetterman is the stronger candidate because he is simultaneously extremely popular in the Philadelphia and Pittsburgh collar suburbs while also stemming the bleeding in the ancestrally Democratic Pittsburgh exurbs and northeast with his economic populist message. However, if Parnell ends up the Republican nominee, I am personally comfortable, at this point in time, saying that either (or really any) Democrat can win that contest. With the right candidate who can once again make the “suburbs roar”, Democrats should be able to win the Pennsylvania Senate seat.
WISCONSIN
After Pennsylvania, Wisconsin seems to be the second-best pickup opportunity for Democrats. President Biden won the state last year by 0.63 points, and since 2018, Democrats have had a winning streak among statewide races in the state. That year, they flipped the governorship, the Attorney General’s office, and the State Treasurer’s office. That year, they also reelected US Senator Tammy Baldwin by a landslide margin of 11 points. Last year, despite state Republicans’ best efforts to prevent the outcome, Democrat Jill Karofsky won a landslide election to flip a seat on the Wisconsin Supreme Court from red to blue, presaging Biden’s eventual 0.63 points victory. Earlier this year, Democrat Jill Underly won another landslide victory of 15 points for State Superintendent of Instruction. The state is undoubtedly becoming a red state as the rural areas continue to shift red with the ongoing collapse of the old New Deal Coalition and the continuing strength Republicans have in Milwaukee’s exurban WOW Collar.
Incumbent Senator Ron Johnson has not said whether he will run again or not, but previously, he indicated that he would prefer to return to the private sector. There is also no love lost between Johnson and Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell. Johnson has also completely reshaped his image away from a libertarian, classic Reagan Republican emphasizing low taxes and limited government into a total Trump sycophant. He has been saying conspiracy theories on the floor of the Senate about the 2020 election and otherwise just become a total Trump toady. Given that Trump lost the state in 2020 and that his brand post-2016 has led to multiple losses statewide for Wisconsin Republicans, it does not seem to be a good place to be.
Of all the major metropolitan areas in the country, Milwaukee’s Collar Counties have been the most stubbornly red even through the endemic suburban shift seen these past few years. This largely is due to the WOW Counties not being “suburbs” in the same way that Westchester County, NY, Ventura County, CA, and Montgomery County, PA are. The latter are extremely dense suburban counties with high population density and very little rural land left. The WOW Counties, though, still have a large amount of rural and farmland with necessarily lower population density. There have been numerous studies that show population density is directly correlated with Democratic margin, so it makes sense that since the WOW Counties are still largely exurban and rural and not suburban in the traditional sense, Democrats are not as strong there. However, despite all this, the WOW Counties have shifted blue in the Trump Era as well even though they all still remain Republican strongholds.
On the Republican side, if Ron Johnson doesn’t run, it seems like national Republicans are hoping Congressman Mike Gallagher will jump in and run instead. He would be a strong candidate who could keep the populist message in addition to maintaining strong support in the Milwaukee Collar. On the Democratic side, the field is wide open. There are currently four major candidates (State Treasurer Sarah Godlewski, Tom Nelson, Lieutenant Governor Mandel Barnes, and Alex Lasry) already announced with at least one more almost certain to jump in the race: Congressman Ron Kind. Personally, I am rooting for Barnes to make it through the primary. He is a charismatic and young candidate from Milwaukee. His base has been the urban voters of Milwaukee and Madison, and he has also demonstrated ability to stem the bleeding in the ancestrally Democratic Driftless Region of the state as well as to be competitive enough in the Milwaukee Collar. Along with mobilizing high turnout from black voters, he should put up a strong challenge against whoever goes up on the Republican side. Right now, though, I rate the race as a pure tossup regardless of whether Johnson retires or not. For what it is worth, Wisconsin Democrats are really hoping he runs again because they really want one more shot to take him down at the ballot box after having failed to do so twice already. They think that his hard right turn will give them the best opportunity to take the seat, and I think they are right.
NORTH CAROLINA
The third and final of the pure tossups is North Carolina. North Carolina has been a tease for Democrats since 2008. Obama won the state by a bare plurality that year along with Democrat Kay Hagan winning the Class II Senate seat. North Carolina is another Deep South state that has been moving towards Democrats for some time now, but despite that, Democrats have won no federal statewide race since 2008. The reason for this is quite similar to what is going on in Pennsylvania: As the coalitions of the Parties are mutating, the state is staying extremely close. In the end, though, I do believe that North Carolina is the next Deep South state to go blue.
North Carolina is often compared to its neighbors Virginia and Georgia. Virginia went blue in 2008 and has stayed blue since then with no Republican winning a statewide race since 2009 and no Republican winning a statewide federal race since George Allen won the Class I Senate seat in 2002. Georgia flipped blue at the presidential level last year, and due to the runoffs in January, their US Senate delegation is also blue. Both Georgia and Virginia went blue because of massive, rapid urbanization and suburbanization in Metro Atlanta in the former and the Urban Crescent (Northern Virginia/Greater Washington, Greater Richmond, and Hampton Roads) in the latter. With an influx of highly educated and affluent suburbanites into the state’s booming metropolises, the electorate of these states has become more Democratic as the urban and suburban voters overwhelm the rural and exurban voters. Georgia is still going through this process, but the process is complete in Virginia. At this point, the Urban Crescent is so highly educated, so wealthy, and so populous that it just overwhelms the rest of the state with its liberal votes. Metro Atlanta is on the verge of doing the same in Georgia.
So, what makes North Carolina different? In North Carolina, the three metropolises are Greater Charlotte, the Research Triangle Park, and the Piedmont Triad. In 2008, the core cities of these metropolises were deep blue (as all cities have been for over a century now), but the suburbs were still pretty red. Obama was able to win despite this because Democrats had not fully shed their New Deal Coalition in the state at that point. Obama was able to gain just enough support in the suburbs in the state while maintain just enough support in the rural and exurban areas of the state (with white working class and industrial voters) that he was able to win the state.
However, today, North Carolina has almost completely shed the last vestiges of the New Deal Coalition. The rural and exurban areas in the western and southeastern parts of the state have become almost maximized for Republicans while the metropolises’ suburbs have been sprinting blue. The state has stayed slightly redder than the nation because this movement of coalitions caused an essential status quo: For every rural voter Democrats lost in the west, they gained one in Metro Charlotte. However, based on all indications, it seems that Republicans have no more room to gain in the rural parts of the state.
On the other hand, Democrats have plenty of room to gain in the affluent and highly educated suburban areas. Throw in the fact that the state continues to attract highly educated residents from around the country due to its booming banking, tech, and manufacturing sectors, and the state is ripe for Democrats to win. North Carolina, annoyingly, is just a demographic waiting game for Democrats. We need to wait until the three metros overwhelm the rest of the state as currently happens in Virginia, Colorado, Nevada, Arizona, and Georgia. It is happening. I do not know that 2022 is the year in which the transition of the coalitions has progressed to a large enough extent that Democrats can ride their new suburban coalition to victory. I am hopeful, but as it is, even if Democrats do not win in North Carolina in 2022, it will certainly become a lean blue state by the end of the decade.
As in Pennsylvania, both parties have extremely deep benches in this state. There are three main candidates on the Republican side: Pat McCrory, US Representative Ted Budd, and former US Representative Mark Walker. McCrory was the governor of the state in 2013-2017. Budd received an endorsement from Donald Trump. Walker is a former congressman who has very little name ID statewide. So far, it seems to be a battle between McCrory and Budd for the Republican nomination, and just based on his electoral history, I would assume that McCrory has the advantage even though Budd has the Trump endorsement. Similar to Walker, Budd also has very little name ID in the state while McCrory is well known.
On the Democratic side, there are two candidates who seem to have the best shot of winning the nomination: State Senator from Mecklenburg County (Charlotte) Jeff Jackson and former Chief Justice of the North Carolina Supreme Court Cheri Beasley. Jeff Jackson is almost an exact clone of last year’s US Senate Democratic nominee in the state Cal Cunningham whose campaign infamously imploded with the revelation of his extramarital affair. Jackson and Cunningham are both inoffensive, middle-aged white men who are both veterans and who both served in the State Senate. They also give off the same affable, genteel vibe of a moderate politician uncle. Naturally, a lot of Democratic activists are terrified that nominating Jackson will result in the same outcome as happened last year even if Jackson is fully faithful to his own wife.
Cheri Beasley is a black woman who was the state’s first black female Chief Justice. She ran for reelection last year to another term as Chief Justice, but she lost to Republican Paul Newby by less than 450 votes even as Biden lost the state by about 75,000 votes and Cunningham lost the state by about 100,000 votes. Beasley greatly overperformed both ballot topliners. As one of the reasons Biden lost North Carolina was lagging support in the northeastern Black Belt region of the state, it seems that Beasley might have a decent chance to mobilize and turnout the black vote in this area to a greater extent. I am personally rooting for her to win the primary and the general election so that we can once again have a black female voice in the US Senate, and so far, her fundraising prowess has blown away Jackson. If Beasley does win the nomination, I think she is a very strong place to win the race.
In Part III, I will look at the currently Republican-held seats which are very likely to remain in Republican hands.
Loved this one.